Risk weights are derived from two sources: published research on transformation failure rates and twenty years of practitioner observation across PE-backed organizations, healthcare, SaaS, airlines, and financial services.

McKinsey, BCG, and Kotter Institute research identifies leadership misalignment, unclear decision authority, and cultural barriers as primary drivers of the 70–75% transformation failure rate.

These weights are directional, not actuarial. They surface the order of magnitude of risk — not a precise outcome. The purpose is to make the cost of unaddressed conditions impossible to ignore.